Trunk Economics | December 31, 2024
India's Generational Shift in 2025
TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AGO, IN THE run-up to the new millennium, two anxieties gripped the world. The first was technological and was in the making for more than a year. The problem was straightforward: many legacy computer systems, programmed in the 1960s, used a two-digit code to represent the year. This shorthand, designed to conserve precious memory, threatened to unleash chaos when the clock struck midnight on December 31, 1999.
As we bid adieu to 2024, it's time to reflect on the lessons learned from the Y2K scare, the IC-814 hijacking, and the nation's remarkable progress in the face of adversity.
Y2K: A Cautionary Tale
Panic set in as experts warned of catastrophic failures in critical infrastructure: banking systems would collapse, power plants would shut down, airline reservations would vanish, and government services would grind to a halt. The very fabric of humanity’s digital existence seemed to be at risk.
The Y2K (shorthand for the year 2000) risk occupied mind space like no other as the world prepared to usher in the new millennium.
And yet, when the clock struck midnight, the apocalypse failed to materialize. After a year of frantic repairs and upgrades, the feared disruptions proved minimal.
The Y2K scare serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of technological hubris. It reminds us that even the most seemingly insurmountable problems can be solved with foresight, planning, and a healthy dose of scepticism.
In the meantime, India has catapulted to the world’s fifth largest economy and looks on course to soon become the third largest, commanding a powerful heft on the global economic high table. This journey, though, has not been a linear smooth upward ride, but instead, has been punctuated by the rough and tumble of multiple alleged governance lapses and scams of purported eye-popping proportions.
A Dark Chapter
For Indians though, the collective panic during the last week of 1999 was of a very different nature that threatened the country’s very body fabric.
On December 24, 1999 five armed terrorists hijacked Indian Airlines Flight IC-814, an Airbus 300 flight from Kathmandu to New Delhi, holding 179 passengers and 11 crew members hostage.
Under immense pressure, the Indian government ultimately agreed to release three high-profile terrorists.
The hijacking finally came to an end on December 31, 1999, with the hostages returning home on two special flights, bringing closure to one of the darkest chapters in India's battle against terrorism.
India today is a veritable jumble of all the three generations. Tens of thousands have made their millions, while hundreds of millions continue to earn their keep from farms but their children aspire to match upscale lifestyles.
The Buddenbrooks Effect
As we bring the curtains down on 2024, there are no Y2K or plane hijacks to worry about. Twenty-five years later, the points of interest are of a different kind: dealing with aspirations of a billion plus people characterised by the “Buddenbrooks effect”.
The 1901 novel Buddenbrooks: The Decline of a Family by Nobel prize winner Thomas Mann is a story of how ambitions and fortunes change over generations. Economists sometimes call it the `Buddenbrooks’ effect. The first generation toils a lifetime to earn money, buying means of comfort and securing a better future. The second aspires to climb up the social ladder by occupying positions in bureaucracy, academics, the private sector and politics. When the third generation comes along, social prestige and opulence become a given. So, they look for a life of music and arts, worrying little about the rather earthy anxieties that occupied their ancestors.
India today is a veritable jumble of all the three generations. Tens of thousands have made their millions, while hundreds of millions continue to earn their keep from farms but their children aspire to match upscale lifestyles.
As India hurtles towards a smarter, more tech-savvy future, it is essential to not lose sight of the intangible yet crucial aspects of nation-building. Amidst the frenzy of urban development, we risk neglecting the non-negotiables: stable law and order, social harmony, and a society free from discrimination.
A New Era for India
As India hurtles towards a smarter, more tech-savvy future, it is essential to not lose sight of the intangible yet crucial aspects of nation-building. Amidst the frenzy of urban development, we risk neglecting the non-negotiables:
stable law and order, social harmony, and a society free from discrimination. The final year of this century’s first quarter, 2025, holds out inspiring promise towards this end, marking a generational shift in India’s sociological, economic and geo-strategic co-ordinates.
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